A pair of 2019 NCAA Tournament First Four games are in the books. Fairleigh Dickinson and Belmont both won on Tuesday night, sending them deeper into March Madness 2019. Elsewhere in the 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket, Virginia is a No. 1 seed again. The Cavaliers are looking to avoid a repeat of last season when they became the only No. 1 seed in history to lose their Round of 64 matchup after being blown out by UMBC. No. 9 Florida State also turned heads last year, knocking off top-seed Xavier in the second round and then defeating 4-seed Gonzaga. FSU made it all the way to the Elite Eight and delivered several of last year's top March Madness upsets along the way. Finding underdogs who can go deep in the 2019 NCAA bracket will win your pool. So, before you lock in your 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and college basketball predictions, see what the proven computer model at SportsLine has to say.
Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed some massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 seed Buffalo over No. 4 seed Arizona, No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago over No. 6 seed Miami, and No. 10 seed Butler over No. 7 seed Arkansas.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 12 of the 18 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds the past three years. Getting those picks right could literally make or break your March Madness bracket.
Now, SportsLine's advanced computer model has simulated the entire NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket, and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
What they found: No. 8 seed VCU falls to No. 9 seed UCF in the first round. The Knights take this matchup outright in over 60 percent of simulations, making it one of the computer's highly confident 2019 March Madness picks.
UCF's defense has been among the fiercest in the country all season. The Knights rank 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 28th in points allowed per game (64.3) and 13th in opponent field goal percentage (39.5). Their success on the defensive end is primarily a function of the way they pressure the ball on the perimeter and their towering height in the paint.
UCF center Tacko Fall stands 7-foot-6, 310 points and is a dominant force when the senior is on the floor, averaging 2.5 blocks and 7.3 rebounds in 24.8 minutes per game. By comparison, VCU only has one player on its roster taller than 6-foot-8 (Michael Gilmore is 6-foot-10 and plays just 7.2 minutes per game). Plus, the Rams rely on getting to the rim frequently to score. UCF's dominating size in the paint is a big reason why the model says the Knights advance to the next round as one of its most confident 8 vs. 9 NCAA Tournament picks.
Another huge curveball: No. 3 seed LSU falls loses in the first round to No. 14 Yale. Both teams can score at will, with LSU ranking No. 23 in the nation at 81.4 points per game and Yale right behind the Tigers at 81.1. Both teams also have scoring depth, with seven players in each rotation averaging at least seven points per game. However, the Bulldogs are the more effective three-point shooting team, so they can more effectively space the floor. They've also been more successful defensively.
In fact, the Bulldogs held their opponents to 41.1 percent shooting from the floor this season. And while those numbers are ultimately impacted by the quality of Yale's schedule, the Bulldogs were defensively stout in non-conference wins over California and Miami. The Bears shot just 35.3 percent against Yale, while the Hurricanes only made 41.3 percent of their field goal attempts.
Add in the controversy surrounding LSU head coach Will Wade's suspension amid a federal investigation and Yale appears to be on a more level playing field than your typical 14-seed. That's why the SportsLine Projection Model considers Yale over LSU as one of its top 2019 NCAA Tournament upsets in the West Region.
SportsLine's model also has one region where you need to pick the Nos. 11, 12 and 13 seeds, and another region with a No. 3 seed in the Final Four. Nailing those picks could literally make or break your bracket.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2019 bracket? And which underdogs shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which No. 3 seed makes the Final Four, and see which region you need to pick the 11, 12, and 13 seeds, all from the model that's nailed 12 of the 18 double-digit seed upsets the past three years.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2019-bracket-proven-computer-simulation-reveals-surprising-upset-picks/
2019-03-20 15:45:00Z
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